Total U.S. Aftermarket Sales Expected to Increase 8.5% in 2022

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The automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate its market strength with higher than expected sales in 2021 on the back of a slow economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Total U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket sales are expected to increase 8.5% in 2022, to $356.5 billion, according to the “2022 Joint Channel Forecast Model” jointly produced by Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA). This data will be reviewed in a joint, members-exclusive webinar led by Shane Norton of S&P Global Mobility at 1 p.m. EDT on June 9.

An additional 5% growth is forecast for 2023 and an average growth of more than 3% in 2024, bringing the light vehicle aftermarket to $401.5 billion by 2025. The 2019 compound average annual growth rate to 2022 will be 5.7%, which is more than up for the losses seen in 2020 due to the pandemic.

“Year after year, the auto care industry continues to show its strength and reliability,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “Amid the highest gas prices on record and inflation at its highest level in 40 years, coupled with ongoing supply chain disruptions and war in Eastern Europe , vehicle miles traveled, vehicles in service and consumer spending all increased in 2021 and are also expected to increase in the coming years.

“The automotive aftermarket is once again showing its resilience with a stronger than expected post-pandemic recovery,” commented Paul McCarthy, President and CEO of AASA. “In fact, the automotive aftermarket has grown nearly 25% over the past two years despite continued headwinds, and we’re excited to see the historic market size of $400 billion in 2025. But as the industry progresses towards this historic figure, look for a new challenge to face as we may move from a market supported by high demand and availability to a battle for market share. additional aftermarket strength, working with the right partners to ensure the same pace of success in this next phase of industry momentum.
Key data from the joint channel forecasting model includes:

  • Market trends influencing the secondary market;
  • A 2021-2025 review of industry growth and forecasts;
  • Industry sales by channel, including historical and forecast;
  • Industry sales by distribution channel; And more.

Market sizing and forecasting is done on behalf of the Auto Care Association and AASA by S&P Global Mobility (formerly IHS Markit Automotive Team), a leading business intelligence firm. Forecasts are based on the US Census Bureau Economic Census; IMR Inc.; and proprietary data, economic analysis and forecasting models from S&P Global Mobility.

The joint channel forecast model is available in the Auto Care Association’s 2023 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2023factbook and in the AASA’s Aftermarket Size & Forecast report available at https://www.aftermarketsuppliers .org/resource.

Sallie R. Loera