Kinsale Capital Stock: Best prospect for short-term capital gain

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Investment strategy

Market price ARE be predicted every day by self-protective and disruptive actions taken by MMs trading high-volume block trades for institutional investors managing their billion-dollar equity investment portfolios.

Records of market results as a result of such forecasts make their trends visually trackable and their rewards and risk exposures explicit in graphical form. The images below are the results of traded forecasts, not hopeful tools for guessing what might happen later. Although there is no guarantee of the future, examples in hand are much better than assertive hypotheses without evidence.

Additionally, the results follow identical strategic disciplines across all stocks, making forecast expectations directly comparable. This way, personal preferences can be carefully tracked.

The main stock of interest in this article is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc (NYSE: KNSL).

Company Description

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The Company’s commercial offerings include construction, small business, excess and general accident, commercial property, paramedical health, life sciences, energy, environmental, healthcare, inland marine, public entity and commercial insurance, as well as product, professional and management liability insurance It markets and sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Source: Yahoo Finance

street analyst estimates

Yahoo finance

Reward prospects and risk exposures


Figure 1

MM coverage predictions

(Image used with permission)

The expected rewards for these securities are the largest gains over the current market closing price, which is worth protecting short positions. Their measurement is on the horizontal green scale.

The risk dimension is that of actual price declines at their most extreme while being held in the previous pursuit of upward rewards similar to those currently seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.

Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exposure exceeds its reward outlook will be above the dotted diagonal line. The attractive buying capital gain issues are found in the down and right directions.

Our primary interest is in KNSL at the location [11]. A standard “market index” of reward~risk trade-offs is offered by SPY at [2. The most appealing (to own) by this Figure 1 view may be SPY or perhaps Markel (MKL) at [3]. But other considerations in Figure 2 will show why this may not be the case.

Comparison of characteristics of alternative investment stocks

The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every short-term stock investment. There are other aspects of comparison that this chart sometimes doesn’t communicate well, especially when broad market outlooks like SPY’s are involved. Where “likelihood” issues are present, other comparative tables, such as Figure 2, may be helpful.

Yellow highlighting of table cells emphasizes factors important to stock valuations and KNSL stock, the most promising near capital gain, ranked in the column [R]. Filling pink cells indicates inadequate proportions of competitive critical performance requirements, as in [T] where [F] Risk exposure exceeds [E] Reward opportunity.

Figure 2

detailed comparative data

The price ranges implied by the day’s trading activity are in columns [B] and [C]usually surrounding the day’s closing price [D]. They produce a measure of risk and reward that we call the Range Index [G]the percentage of forecast range B to C that falls between D and C.

Today’s G’s are used for the last 5 years of each stock’s daily forecast history [M] count and average before [L] experiences. Less than 20 G or a shorter history of M is considered statistically insufficient.

[H] indicates what percentage of L positions were profitably completed, either at prices above the range or at the market close above the next day’s entry costs of the expected closing prices. The net realization of all the L’s is shown in [ I ].

[ I ] fractions are weighted by H and 100-H in [O,P, & Q] suitably conditioned by [J] to provide a ranking of investments [R] in CAGR units of basis points per day.

Additional market perspective is provided by the more than 3,000 stocks for which price range predictions are available. They currently suggest that while the market rally is underway, it is still far from generally attractive.

On the other hand, the R column scores for KNSL and the top 20 predicted populations support the competitive ability of the lead applicant.

Recent trends in Price Interval Forecast for KNSL

picture 3

4cas update daily trends

(Image used with permission)

This IS NOT a typical “technical analysis chart” of simple historical observations (only). Instead, it represents the Daily Market-Maker price range forecast updates implied by real-time live real capital commitments.

Its communicative value is present here through visual comparisons of the proportions of upward and downward price change expectations on each forecast date. Expectations of the market maker community, as influenced by the actions of interested and involved institutional investors.

These forecasts are typically resolved in time horizons of less than six months, and often in two months or less. This one indicates that out of the 65 prior forecasts like today’s, about 19 out of 20 were profitable, made in 19 market days (less than 4 weeks) profitably with average gains of +6%, a CAGR rate of 127%. No promises, just fun with the story.


Comparing the performance of Market-Makers’ short-term forecasts for Kinsale Capital Group, Inc, with similar forecasts of other technologically active stocks pursued by investor referencing, it seems clear that this stock may be an investment choice. attractive to investors looking for short-term securities. forward capital gain strategies.

Sallie R. Loera